What does chance really do?
Sampling and counting puzzles where the exact answer exists, to calibrate the method.
The question
Three doors, one prize, switch after one door is opened. The exact answer is two in three. Each line is a run of games, so you can watch simulation close in on a known truth.
What the model assumes
Exact answer known, used as a check on the method itself.
Results are hypotheses, not facts. Example models use round example numbers, not measured data. See honesty rules.